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EcoRestoration Alliance

EcoRestoration Alliance · v10i1Change 1 — was v10h
Version stamp — reflects the v10i revision (flip on publish).
· 2026

Cooling Climate Quickly

A New Perspective Reveals New Options

Ten thousand years of human history has warmed the planet by dismantling the living systems that cool it — an estimated 22–38% of all human-caused warming.2Change 2 — was Ten thousand years of human history has warmed the planet almost as much as industrial fossil fuels.
Retires the "almost as much as fossil fuels" overclaim that v10i dropped; fossil is ~62%, ecosystems 22–38%.
The same biological cooling we dismantled can be restored — rapidly and powerfully by driving water cycles, slowly but surely by sequestering carbon.

10,000 Years of Hidden Ecological Debt — cumulative climate forcing chart showing soil carbon loss, biological cooling loss, deforestation CO2, and fossil fuel CO2 stacking to ~3.1 W/m².
10,000 Years of Hidden Ecological Debt — cumulative forcing reaches ~3.1 W/m²3Change 3 — was ~3.1 W/m²
Chart IMAGE unchanged — confirm it does not still stack soil-carbon and deforestation as separate bars (double-counted pre-June). v10i partitions the measured 2.16 W/m² as 1.68 fossil / 0.48 ecological.
.

What This Paper Argues

We are losing the climate battle because our primary analytical tool — carbon accounting — blinds us to the fastest solutions available. Living ecosystems cool the planet through mechanisms largely invisible to carbon frameworks, and these mechanisms are being destroyed.

In January 2020, a shipping regulation accidentally ran a planetary experiment: cutting ship-fuel sulfur by 80% dimmed the clouds those ships had been seeding for a century. Ocean temperatures visibly warmed within months — not decades. The effect was two to four times larger than models predicted. The implication is stark: cloud formation, evapotranspiration, and biological aerosol production are fast-acting climate levers that carbon accounting simply cannot see.

Forests are the largest source of cloud-seeding aerosols over land. When forests are cleared, the same dimming mechanism fires — without anyone measuring it, funding it, or counting it. Marine phytoplankton play the same role over the ocean. Every hectare of degraded ecosystem is a missed lever.

Core Claim

Ecosystem degradation accounts for an estimated 22–38% of total climate forcing4Change 4 — was 15–45% of total climate forcing — comparable to fossil fuels at the upper end
v10i reconciled share (was v10f-era 15–45%); the "comparable to fossil fuels" clause is removed with the retired overclaim.
— and includes the only components that can be rapidly reversed. Biophysical cooling from ecosystem restoration is 3–7×5Change 5 — was at least 3×
v10i reconciled biophysical-vs-carbon ratio (−0.15 to −0.55 vs −0.05 to −0.08 W/m²).
carbon sequestration on the critical 10–20 year timescale, with restored ground cover delivering 2–4°C of local surface cooling within months.

These interventions produce livability — food security, water security, breathable air — as an inseparable co-product. They are not "co-benefits." They are the primary outputs of a living planet.

The paper introduces two concepts that reframe what "effective climate action" means: lability — how fast an intervention produces measurable cooling — and human-adjacency — how directly it benefits the communities who implement it. When you score interventions on lability and human-adjacency alongside magnitude, ecosystem restoration rises to the top. It is precisely the interventions invisible to carbon accounting, and therefore unfunded, that score highest.


Key Findings at a Glance

3–7×6Change 6 — was
Same reconciled ratio, headline stat.
Cooling power

Biophysical cooling from ecosystem restoration is 3–7×7Change 7 — was at least 3×
Match the reconciled 3–7× ratio.
carbon sequestration on the 10–20 year timescale.

22–38%8Change 8 — was 15–45%
v10i reconciled share, headline stat.
Hidden forcing

Ecosystem degradation accounts for an estimated 22–38% of total climate forcing9Change 9 — was 15–45% of total climate forcing — comparable to fossil fuels at the upper end
v10i share; "comparable to fossil fuels at the upper end" removed.
.

2–4°C
Cool dome

Restored ground cover cools the surface within months; a full cool dome of this magnitude builds over one to two decades.

W/m²
Common currency

Watts per square metre measures all climate mechanisms on equal terms — carbon and non-carbon alike.


About This Work

Authors and contributors: This paper synthesises work by many contributors, including Peter Bunyard, Rob de Laet, Anastassia Makarieva, Howard Dryden, Brian Von Herzen, Stuart Cowan, Philip Bogdonoff, David Ellison, Ali Bin Shahid, Didi Pershouse, and others. It was prepared by the EcoRestoration Alliance in partnership with Biodiversity for a Livable Climate, the Climate Foundation, and the Buckminster Fuller Institute. Per-contributor roles and contribution types are tracked in the Contributors Spreadsheet.

Governance: The paper is developed as a living, co-authored document under a transparent contribution framework. Scope, authorship criteria, and rollout plan are documented in the Governance Working Document, which is open for comment by contributors and reviewers.

How it was written: The paper was developed through an intensive human–AI collaboration that began in March 2026 — opening with a physics question about vegetation and blackbody radiation and expanding, over successive drafts, into a multi-mechanism synthesis grounded in published data and physical first principles.

The Making-of Story

The sparks, the dead ends, the unexpected connections — and the collaborative process behind the paper — are documented in a companion piece.

Read the full story of the collaboration →

How ERA Members Can Participate

ERA's network spans scientists, practitioners, and allied organizations worldwide. The paper is designed to be tested, amplified, and extended by that network. Three ways to engage:

Proposed v10i changes — Cooling Climate Quickly (/ccq)

Amber marks below show each edit; hover any for was → now → why. 9 edits · 3 flagged for follow-up.

  1. Header version stampv10hv10i
    Version stamp — reflects the v10i revision (flip on publish).
  2. Hero lede…almost as much as industrial fossil fuels.…an estimated 22–38% of human-caused warming.
    Retires the "almost as much as fossil fuels" overclaim that v10i dropped; fossil is ~62%, ecosystems 22–38%.
  3. Hero chart caption~3.1 W/m² (chart image)verify / regenerate
    Chart IMAGE unchanged — confirm it does not still stack soil-carbon and deforestation as separate bars (double-counted pre-June). v10i partitions the measured 2.16 W/m² as 1.68 fossil / 0.48 ecological.
  4. Core Claim — share15–45% … comparable to fossil fuels at the upper end22–38% (comparison dropped)
    v10i reconciled share (was v10f-era 15–45%); the "comparable to fossil fuels" clause is removed with the retired overclaim.
  5. Core Claim — ratioat least 3×3–7×
    v10i reconciled biophysical-vs-carbon ratio (−0.15 to −0.55 vs −0.05 to −0.08 W/m²).
  6. Findings card — Cooling power (number)3–7×
    Same reconciled ratio, headline stat.
  7. Findings card — Cooling power (text)at least 3×3–7×
    Match the reconciled 3–7× ratio.
  8. Findings card — Hidden forcing (number)15–45%22–38%
    v10i reconciled share, headline stat.
  9. Findings card — Hidden forcing (text)15–45% … comparable to fossil fuels22–38%
    v10i share; "comparable to fossil fuels at the upper end" removed.
  10. LINK Whitepaper buttonsRepointed from the v10h read-only doc to the v10i draft. Swap for the clean v10i read-only on publish.
  11. LINK Making-of linkPoints to the updated making-of (new v10i chapter + updated contributor graph).
  12. FLAG Shipping paragraph"two to four times larger than models predicted" — kept; confirm against the paper's shipping section.